For years, every conversation about Toronto housing started from the same premise: relentless population growth would forever outrun supply. That premise just took a serious hit. As Canadian Mortgage Trends reports, Toronto's growth slowed dramatically in 2025 — falling from among the fastest-growing metros on the continent to 412th — as “lower immigration and continued domestic out-migration reshaped growth patterns” (Toronto falls from fastest-growing metro to 412th as residents move elsewhere).
Why the boom stalled
Two forces are working at once. Federal immigration targets have come down from their record highs, cutting the inflow of newcomers who overwhelmingly settle in big metros first. At the same time, domestic out-migration continues: existing residents — often young families priced out of ownership — keep leaving for more affordable Ontario cities and other provinces. Toronto has experienced out-migration for years, but record international arrivals used to mask it. Remove the mask, and the underlying pattern shows.
What slower growth does to the housing market
Rentals feel it first
New arrivals rent before they buy, so the rental market is the leading indicator — and softer rental demand is already weighing on condo activity, as BMO's economists noted. Investors who counted on ever-rising rents to carry negative-cash-flow condos are the most exposed group in this shift.
Condos before detached
Condos absorb demographic shifts fastest: they're the entry point for newcomers, investors, and first-time buyers alike. Expect longer days-on-market and more negotiating room downtown before any of it touches family homes in supply-starved neighbourhoods.
Prices: cooler, not collapsing
Slower growth removes urgency, not underlying scarcity. The GTA still carries a structural housing deficit, and construction is slowing too — June housing starts fell 6%. Fewer people competing for fewer new homes nets out closer to balance than to bust. National forecasters are split on the result: CREA has cut its sales forecast while Royal LePage raised its price outlook — a reminder that sales volume and prices can tell different stories.
What this means for you
- First-time buyers: this is the most breathing room the Toronto market has offered in years — especially for condos. Conditional offers are back on the table. Get pre-approved so you can negotiate from strength.
- Move-up buyers: a softer condo market cuts both ways — your sale may fetch less, but the gap to a bigger home may be narrower than it's been in a decade.
- Investors: underwrite on today's rents, not yesterday's growth curve. If a property only works with aggressive rent assumptions, it doesn't work.
- Sellers: price to the current market, not to your neighbour's 2022 comparable. Well-priced homes still sell; aspirational listings sit.
Frequently asked questions
Does slower population growth mean Toronto prices will fall?
It removes one pillar of demand, which cools price growth — but chronic under-supply and falling construction keep a floor under the market. Most economists read this as rebalancing, not reversal.
Is now a good time to buy a condo in Toronto?
If you're buying to live in it and your budget is pre-approved, more choice and negotiating room work in your favour. If you're buying purely for rent growth, run much more conservative numbers.
Could immigration targets rise again?
Yes — policy can change quickly, and if it does, demand returns to a market that will have built even less in the interim. That's the risk of waiting indefinitely for lower prices.
The EverLend take
Markets in transition reward preparation over prediction. Nobody times the exact bottom; what you can control is having financing arranged so you can act when the right property appears. Talk to an EverLend agent about a pre-approval with a 90–120 day rate hold — it costs nothing and turns headlines like these into leverage.
Source & further reading: Toronto falls from fastest-growing metro to 412th as residents move elsewhere on Canadian Mortgage Trends.